The war or ‘invasion’ which was supposed to last not more than a week or just 7days tops, currently hitting its 8th month down the way. Russian forces have captured more than 20% of the Ukrainian territories excluding Crimea and conducted a plebiscite on the four captured provinces of the Donbas region. According to Russia the plebiscite or ‘referendum’ went extremely successful, where in Donetsk or DPR 99.23% of the votes went in favor of joining the Russian Federation, in Luhansk 98.42% of the votes went in favor, in Kherson 87.05% of the votes went in favor, in Zaporizhzhia 93.11% and in Melitopol it was 96.78%.
The Central Election Commission of Russia has also planned for a referendum for the Mykolaiv and Kharkiv oblasts.
But the referendum part is just not everything, the war is far from over and everything. The threat of World War III and the Hot-Exchange of Nuclear Weapons are never more real than today. The situation can really go out of control, as on the one hand Russia led by President Vladimir Putin, and NATO led by the person who couldn’t remember what he said 10 minutes ago Joe Biden, are itching to hit the ‘Big Button’ to launch their weapons.
But there are a lot more things working in the mix. India, China, OPEC, Iran, North Korea, and the EU are the major players in this game. Apart from that, we have a lot more things to discuss.
First Take:
The Propaganda On Who’s Winning The War:
The Ukrainian Propaganda Machinery is working day and night to break the Russian Might and boost the morale of their own soldiers. According to Ukrainian government spokespersons and media reports they are claiming that Russia has lost more than 75,000 soldiers and Ukraine has lost less than 10,000 soldiers. Russia has lost more than 2,000 tanks and armored cars, 150+ Planes, and Helicopters. The same news and figures are being broadcasted all over the world by Ukrainian and Western Media houses, and now some of the Indian Media houses have also started to buy it.
On the other hand, the Russian Government has confirmed 7500+ casualties by their names and name tags. While Russian Government has also claimed that Russian Forces have eliminated more than 61,000 Ukrainian forces.
But anyways we don’t have much verifiable information regarding the biggest sufferers of this war, the civilians of Ukraine. According to various sources, more than 30,000+ civilians have been killed in the conflict and sadly one of them was an Indian who just left his shelter to find some food for himself and his friends hiding in a bomb shelter.
Due to regular attacks on power plants, Ukraine is now suffering from massive power outages throughout the nation.
Now, the Russian media is stating that Ukraine has nuclear devices and can blow one at Melitopol. Then the entire nuclear might of NATO will fall over Russia.
Take 2:
Russia Taking Heavy Losses on their Weapon’s Front:
But no matter which side you are, the USA-led NATO or Russia or Non-Allied India, you have to admit one thing, Russia, the 2nd largest weapon supplier to the world is truly facing a weapons crunch. Their most formidable weapons like the T-90 and T-72 tanks were turned into burning tin cans by Ukrainian forces, while in the sky Ka-Kamov 52, Mi Choppers, and Sukhoi Su-24 and Su-35 jets are being swept from the sky like flies.
This is very damaging for the ‘Made in Russia’ goodies. It has made even long-term buyers like India think beyond Russian weapon systems. On the other hand, Russia one of the closest allies of Armenia has purchased ‘Made in India’ Pinaka MRBL to defend itself from Azerbaijan aggressions.
Russia is down on the weapon front so badly that they are now procuring weapons from Iran, China, and even North Korea. Iran has armed Russia with their latest Kamikaze drone, named Shahed-136. On the other hand, China and North Korea had offered their excess ammunition. Even there is news that North Korea may send 100,000 troops from its military for policing the Russian-occupied Donbas region.
Take 3:
Latest and Best Weapons Poured in For the Ukrainian Forces
But it doesn’t matter who you believe or which propaganda you are likely to follow, you have to admit one thing, Russia is running out of weapons and ammunition. The situation for Russia is so bad that the Russian forces are forced to use their museum pieces like the T-52, T-62, and T-64 tanks which has almost zero protection against modern rockets and missiles. The US-made Javelin Shoulder Launch Missiles and RPGs are deadly accurate and destroy tanks in dozens every day. The Russian forces are also using the WW II era anti-material rifle PRTS-41, DP-27,
The Russian forces are also not using their state-of-the-art tanks like the T-14 Armata. In terms of small arms, the Russian forces are not getting high-end equipment such as the AK-12, AK-103, and AK-203 series rifles.
The Russian armed forces are also using the missiles like the Kalibar and Iskander. These two are causing the maximum damage to the Ukrainian cities and forces.
In the beginning, there was a theory that Russia is saving the best weapons for the last or waiting for NATO to join the fight directly. But with each passing day, the theory is now proving to be a hoax.
Take 4:
China Learning From The War
Sometimes, if you can watch and learn from someone more experienced than you in any trade, it can help you learn faster and easier without breaking your own bones. The CCP under the permanent dictatorship of Xi Jinping has vowed to ‘re-unify’ Taiwan under the communist flag. According to several sources, Xi was ready to attack the island nation this April or October when the Taiwan strait stays calmer than any time of the year.
But as Russia expected to take over Kiyv within 72 hours the war is still ongoing, and it gave Xi a lot of second thoughts. Then Sleepy Joe the President of the United States announced ‘Boots on Ground’ for Taiwan made things worse. The recurring visits of US, Canadian, Australian, and European nations after the visit of Nancy Pelosi made things even more critical for the island nation. Since the visit of Nancy Pelosi the areal incursion into the Taiwan air space by the CCP’s PLA Air Force,
The regular incursions are keeping the Taiwanese forces on always high-alert which is chewing away their resources and the military personnel are facing fatigue from the constant conflict readiness.
But now as Xi has established himself as the ‘Next Mao’, vowed to build a war-winning military, not just a war-fighting or war-participating military within the next five years. So, does it mean, the Taiwan invention has been postponed until 2027? According to US Defense and Foreign Secretaries, Llyod Austin and Anthony Blinken stated otherwise, according to them, the Taiwan invasion can start anytime. But that can also be the best way to supply billions of dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and other Chinese neighboring nations.
Take 5:
North Korea, South Korea, and Japan’s Take:
First, North Korea is allegedly supplying ammunition to Russia and apart from Xi Jinping, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has only one friend that’s Vladimir Putin. Therefore, unprecedentedly Kim tested several long and medium-range missiles which flew over South Korea and Japan and then safely landed on the sea. Then Kim conducted a live mortar drill throughout the DMZ or border with South Korea.
In response Japan and South Korea could only scramble jets and did what the Indian Politicians do best, ‘Condemming’ Kim and North Korea.
This has made Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida ‘re-arm’ Japan completely since the times of World War II. Japan will buy more weapons and recruit more soldiers, sailors, and airmen to fend off any possible Chinese or North Korean invasion in the future.
Take 6:
Iran:
Iran has come out as a major player during these conflicting events. Although it is suffering from internal problems in the form of the ‘Anti-Hijab’ Movement, the current Iranian regime is making money by selling huge quantities of Kamikaze drones, Shaheed 136 to Russia. These drones have proved to be very effective against various military and civilian installations in Ukraine. Iran had sold and delivered 2,400 drones to Iran already.
Now as per the latest updates, Iran will supply Russia with their latest missiles to replenish the Russian armory. We still have no information on the name and range of the missiles yet, but we will try our best to gather more accurate information on this matter.
If Iran can successfully deliver the missiles to Russia it will be seen as a huge blow to the US Sanctions imposed on both nations.
On the other hand, Iran is also trying to cozy up with India. Iran is trying to sell oil to India at discounted prices just like Russia via the Rupee-Rial method. Furthermore, Iran has allotted a 30% Stake to ONGC Videsh Limited at Farzad-B offshore gas field.
Take 7:
OPEC, OPEC+, and the Great Saudi Impact:
The biggest oil cartel in the world OPEC or the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has decided to remain side with Russia and cut oil production by 2 Million barrels every day. They did it to recover the losses they had suffered during the Wuhan Virus pandemic. The plan was led by Saudi Arabia’s Aramco and UAE the countries with the largest oil reserves in the world. Due to a production cut, the oil prices will go up and worsen the ongoing inflation even further.
To stop this from happening, US President Joe Biden tried to talk it down with the OPEC, Saudi, and UAE leaders but failed. Russia is a member of OPEC+ and Joe Biden wants Russia out, but again nobody listened to him. This made Joe Biden very angry. Now Joe Biden is pushing for the NOPEC Bill or the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels Act Bill to counter the situation. Joe is even trying to ease relationships with Venezuela which is heavily sanctioned by the US.
But there are some more twists left in the show. The Saudi officials have confirmed that Joe Biden agreed on the reduced oil production, but he requested the Saudi officials to delay it for two months as the Mid-term elections will be undergoing in the USA.
This is one of the classic hypocrisies of the USA and President Joe Biden. Now the mid-term elections are here and the inflation in the USA is breaking all the records. The gasoline prices, food prices, and energy prices have gone up very high and people are suffering a lot from this. But Joe Biden said in an interview that inflation is ‘Flat’ and tried to measure it by inches.
But the decision of the OPEC and OPEC+ nations will hurt every economy on the planet including India. India has already started to suffer from heightened inflation rates.
Take-8:
EU: Can the Union Become A Division???
The situation of the common people in the EU states is very grim. As ‘Winter is Coming, and Europe has decided to stop purchasing Russian Oil and Gas, lights and heating systems have already started to flicker. In nations like France, Italy, and Hungary, protests are erupting every day. In France, people are requested not to waste electricity, the street lights are often found turned off and the government buildings are no longer using their central heating systems. The hotels in Budapest are shutting down due to the energy crisis.
Apart from the EU, the UK is also facing a huge energy crisis and the cost of living has also skyrocketed under the Liz Truss administration. Very high food prices have driven customers out of restaurants and pubs. Hundreds of pubs are on the brink of collapse.
Germany has started importing coal from Australia and other friendly nations and restarted its coal-based power plants to tackle the energy crisis.
On the other hand, a NATO aspirant in Sweden, home of the so-called ‘Climate Activist’ who never planted a planted plant, Greta Thunberg, has started facing disastrous situations due to the energy crisis.
The damages to Nord Stream I have made the situation even more critical. But the EU nations are determined to stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia ‘On Paper’ while Turkey is becoming the main mediator or broker of Russian energy in Europe.
Take 9:
The Turkish Double Game:
The President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is playing both sides. At one end, being a NATO member Turkey is supplying the latest weapons like the Bayker Bayraktar TB2 drones to Ukraine on the other hand playing right into Putin’s hand to become an energy mediator of Russian energy supply for the EU nations who have ‘claimed’ to stop purchasing Russian oil and gas.
On one end, Erdogan is not letting Sweden and Finland become NATO members, on the other hand, meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of SCO summits. Erdogan also made Sweden and Finland give up some of their Kurdish residents who flew there to stay safe from any torture from the Turkish and Syrian governments. Although Sweden and Finland agreed to hand over some of their Kurdish ‘citizens’ and ‘refuge seekers’ back in June and July, luckily for the 33 and 97 Kurds who are chosen for deportation respectively on the first and second batch are not yet extradited.
On one end, Erdogan is asking for more F-16 jets from the US on the other hand trying to get their hands on the S-400 defense system from Russia.
Despite being a NATO member, Turkey is planning to attack and take over various islands of Greece. But surprisingly Greece is not getting much support from other members of NATO other than France. With the growing energy crisis and the situation at the Mediterranean Sea, there is a call in France to quit NATO again.
As elections are coming up in Turkey, Erdogan can become an even harder ball to play for NATO.
Take 10:
The USA:
USA and NATO were accusing India of ‘War Profiteering’ which the accusers are famous for. The USA has turned out to be the highest profit maker in this war. The USA has supplied billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine via other NATO members like Poland but these were neither gifts nor freebies. The US companies made the NATO members purchase the weapons from the US and then give them to Ukraine. Now after the huge success of American-made, HIMARS, Javelin, and other equipment, the weapons manufacturers receiving billions of dollars’ worth of orders globally. Japan, South Korea, and NATO states are pushing for F-35s, HIMARS, Javelinas, and other successful weapons used by the Ukrainian forces in the war.
But now the US military is facing Ammunition shortages and according to several sources, it can take up to 6 to 8 months for complete replenishment even under a higher production rate. The Ammunition shortage mostly includes rifles, sniper rifles, machine gun rounds, shotgun shells, and 155mm Howitzer rounds. For your information, one M982 Excalibur 155mm Howitzer shells cost between $68,000 and $100,000 or INR 830,000.
On the other hand, President Joe Biden is selling US’s Strategic Oil Reserves which were filled by former President Donald Trump during his time in office. Biden has decided to release 15 million barrels of oil straight into the US market to keep the oil prices artificially low in the states.
Then again, Russia on 16th October 2022 sent two Tu95 Bear-H bombers possibly filled with Nuclear Bombs, escorted by MiG31 were then intercepted by US Air Force’s F-16 jets over Alaska right after they got picked up by US’s Air Defense Identification systems. Although, all the Russian planes were in international airspace and they turned back at the first instance of their interception to reduce the tensions. But this could be a very clear message to the US by Russia by showing their capabilities. NORAD stated that the Russian planes were neither a threat nor their behaviors were provocative by any means.
According to defense experts, then it was an even clearer message by Russia that, “If Moscow is bombed, Russia can also bombard the USA and other NATO cities.”
Take 11:
NATO’s intervention:
Currently, NATO is planning a Nuclear Attack and Defense exercise close to Russian borders at various places. This is no less than provocation for Russia. Therefore, Russia has also announced the same type of exercises inside their border and possibly with Belarus.
On the other hand, NATO has started a massive troop build-up along with the border states of Russia. Fresh 100,000 soldiers from USA, UK, and France will be stationed in various militarily weaker states like Bulgaria, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia.
NATO has also started to train Ukrainian pilots to fly US-made jets to tackle the Russian invasion. Furthermore, more than 100 Nuclear Bombs and Missiles in Italy, Turkey, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Final Take:
The situation is becoming just like the late 1930s when Hitler won the power struggle and got allies. Here we are not comparing President Putin with Adolf Hitler because the first country the Nazis invaded was Germany itself. But the strategies of president Putin is very similar. The new Axis is under construction. In that Axis, nations are already started to onboard with Russia to deal with their common enemy the USA. In the new Axis, there are currently five major players, Russia, CCP-led China, North Korea, Belarus, and Iran. Countries like Venezuela, Myanmar, Kazakhastan and other central Asian nations, Syria, Cuba, and many more nations hate the USA or have issues with other NATO members.
This is truly an alarming situation where the chances of Nuclear Explosion over cities have never been so high. India At War believes, that the threat of the usage of Nuclear Devices is extremely possible and it can start from Europe or Asia. Either NATO or Russia will launch the first strike at the European theatre while the CCP or North Korea can start targeting Taiwanese or South Korean cities, respectively.
But no matter where the nuclear devices go off, India will face consequences. As Pakistan can also launch Nuclear devices against India, as well as CCP-led China. On the Russian ‘Black Hand’ or ‘Dead Man’s Hand,’ doctrine Russia can launch nuclear missiles against every city on earth, and we can only pray that no Indian city is on that list.
With each passing day, the comments from the leaders of the so-called ‘First World’ threaten the rest of the world with Nuclear bombs and they sometimes are worried about India’s Nuclear capabilities, which is really laughable.